With the ghost of the Cheonan incident hanging over the Korean peninsula, rhetoric is getting stronger and the air is filled with talk of conflict. Against the faded memories of another fruitless war fifty years ago, the Koreas will be better off discussing on the table with an attitude of concession on both sides. Writes Towheed Feroze
The shadow of the Cheonan, the South Korean naval ship, that was allegedly sunk by the North, hangs ominously over the Korean peninsula and the aggressive rhetoric that followed the salvaging of the remains of the ship and what the South calls remnants of a Northern torpedo, is now carrying the sound of weapons. As the South is gearing for a joint military operation with the USA, the North has said unequivocally that such a move would be regarded as an act of war and would compel the North to use the nuclear deterrent.
So far, all of this threatening and counter threatening has been based on rhetoric but would the North take an impulsive step and take a belligerent action of a monumental nature?
First one has to look at the whole Cheonan affair once more. Against the incessant finger pointing of the South the North has assertively denied any involvement and last month an international monitoring agency also said that it was not convinced that the torpedo was from the North.
In fact, it's hard to imagine why the North would foment trouble and make the already turbulent waters more tempestuous when it has so many problems of its own. To start with, the country is almost maniacally isolated and if the news stories of food shortages are true then it would be foolhardy and downright suicidal to stir up more trouble.
But, the West is determined to believe that the torpedo that sunk the Cheonan and killed 46 sailors is the job of the North. But strangely, the West is not willing to consider any other explanations at all. In fact, whenever the issue is brought up, the benefit of the doubt is never given to the Communist side. It's as if someone wants to impose the one and only explanation. Of course, in this age no act of belligerence will go unnoticed and satellites will almost certainly record the events involving the sinking of the Cheonan in March. But, so far satellite images have not been referred to.
With the long standing tensions between the two Koreas it seems rather odd that satellites did not have the Peninsula under surveillance. On top of that, if we bring the attack on Cheonan incident we find it bizarre that just after the ship was hit satellites were not directed over the region to spot any North Korean vessel leaving the spot in a hurry. The torpedo, if it came from the North, had to be released from a vessel!
There are too many gaps here, more holes than Swiss cheese and the foundation on which sanctions were imposed on the North is a flimsy one.
However, for argument's sake if we take that the North was responsible then a sincere apology would have saved it from being a victim of sanctions and the current status, in which, war seems like the next move.
But will there be a war?
The world has come perilously close to disasters in the past and, in a time when the suspicion between the then superpowers was acute with Soviet missiles in Cuba, the crisis was averted in the last minute and there is no reason to believe that there won't be a 'deus ex machina' this time.
But even if the tension subsides the deep chasm between the two Koreas will remain. This is indeed sad because just a few years ago the two seemed on the path to forging a better future. At a light hearted level there was even talk of a joint football team but hopes of better relations seem dashed now.
In all this talk of war, investigation as to what really happened to the Cheonan has taken a backseat.
In addition, the exhibition of the torpedo remains with North Korean markings seems too doctored to believe and one cannot blame conspiracy theorists for propagating the idea that this is just another way to tighten the noose on the renegade North.
But if the North is really innocent then it also has to come onto the world stage and back up its statement with some sort of proof. The reason why a case can be erected against it is due to its unwillingness to open up.
Regrettably, the atmosphere in the Korean peninsula is becoming volatile on the 50th anniversary of the Korean War.
Just a few days ago, the war, deemed by many as the 'Forgotten Conflict' was remembered and as veterans of the war went to the areas where they fought, the reason why the conflict went on for three long years with so many lost lives, seemed very obscure. In the end of that conflict there was no clear victor but the death toll was high. And fifty years later the division is still there and, once more we hear bugles of conflict. The South has a valid reason to feel aggrieved because 46 of her men were lost but maybe the finger pointing has been too fast.
We have not seen any solid proof as yet to believe that North was behind the sinking and therefore, cannot endorse yet another warlike situation where the details are still sketchy.
In addition, the North and South should both realise that they need to sit and talk out differences for their own good. The lesson for them should be the Korean War fifty years ago. It was a futile conflict and one where the two Koreas served two major political ideologies that were at loggerheads. Times have changed and in this age cooperation and unity are needed more than anything else.