Key parties are strategically split up on the question of participating in local bodies' polls ahead of parliament elections. Although local elections to union councils, municipalities and city corporations are considered as non-party elections, nowadays political parties show much interest in these polls because of the growing importance of the local government. These basic tiers are directly involved in development efforts and molding public opinion at grass-root levels as the government pursues the policy of decentralizing the administration.
Awami League, BNP and their allies were primarily opposed to the holding of the local elections prior to national elections. They observed that local elections might hamper the national elections. The parties were also opposed to the holding of any election under the state of emergency.
As the Election Commission announced the schedules for elections to four city corporations and nine municipalities where votes will take place on August 4, Awami League and BNP separately rejected the schedules calling it a conspiracy and a "tamasha" (farce).
But in a major shift in strategy, the Awami League central working committee decided to participate in the elections in the interest of what they called "peace and democracy."
Awami league and its allies will field candidates in the four city corporations and nine municipalities under a banner of "Nagorik Committee" (Citizen Committee).
Awami League says it took the decision as a test case to study the actual intention of the government behind the local elections. The League however said they would not take part in the Upazila Parishad elections.
But BNP and its allies smelt rat behind the shift in Awami League's stance. They started bringing allegations that it is the outcome of an entente between the caretaker and Awami League. They alleged that under the same entente Awami League president Sheikh Hasina was granted release for treatment abroad.
The BNP-led four-party alliance announced a 5-point demand that envisages release of detained chairperson Khaleda Zia, withdrawal of the state of emergency and overseas treatment of Khaleda's two detained sons--Tarique and Koko-- as pre-condition to joining the local elections or dialogue with the caretaker government.
BNP chairperson Khaleda Zia while attending a special court last week said the caretaker government has no mandate to hold local elections. She said BNP is not opposed to local elections but these elections will be held under the next elected government. Her party's secretary general Khandaker Delwar Hossain cautioned that the government will be held responsible if any untoward incident take place over the holding of the local elections.
The alliance announced observance of the Withdrawal of the State of Emergency Day on July 9 and Fundamental Rights Restoration Day on July 16.
Meanwhile, Chief Election Commissioner Dr ATM Shamsul Huda has said the Upazila Parishad elections will be held before the national elections and the Commission will announce the schedule this month. Chief Advisor Dr Fakhruddin Ahmed also said the Upazila elections will be held as per the EC's decision and his government will extend all cooperation in this respect.
Political analysts recall that deposed President HM Ershad after assuming power at gun point also resorted to the same tactics of holding Upazila Parishad elections ignoring the opinion of major parties in mid-1980s. Ershad also practiced divide and rule policy keeping one major party (Awami League) in and another (BNP) out of the 1986 general elections. And in 1988 Ershad organized elections without the participation of Awami League and BNP. But these crooked policies did not work out at the end of the day.
There are some newspaper reports that the government may form an electoral college with elected representatives of local government institutions and members of parliament to elect the next President. There are also speculations that army chief Gen Moeen U Ahmed might be tipped as the President. There are also some reports that the government may go for a referendum on such critical issues of electoral college, formation of national security council or balancing power between the Prime Minister and the President.
These speculations in newspapers have confounded the confusion among the political parties about the ultimate intention of the government and the unseen force behind it. This could be one reason for which some parties are opposed to local elections under the state of emergency as they fear that the government might get elected its handpicked people to implement its future political plans.
Chief Advisor Dr Fakhruddin Ahmed at a dialogue with representatives of the cross-sections of the people in Chittagong last week said the caretaker has no intention to amend the constitution to execute certain suggestion from the audience.
Awami League acting general secretary Syed Ashraful Islam has said the long-awaited parliamentary elections are still uncertain. "Everything is going on amid uncertainty. Even the national elections are uncertain. But keep all sorts of preparations," he told a meeting of Awami Juba League on July 2. He said present activities of the government indicate that it cannot run the country for next six months.
"When the present government took over, there were two forces with it. One is unseen force that worked from behind and another is its moral strength. But, now the government lost its moral strength. So, the government cannot run the country depending only on the unseen forces," Ashraful said.
However, political analysts say that caretaker government should reach a consensus with major parties through formal or informal consultations before taking any political decision. They say there may not be large scale trouble during the city or municipality elections but it would be a difficult task for the government to hold elections in 460 Upazila Parishads without good understanding with the key players. Otherwise, the intention of the caretaker as well as the election commission may be misunderstood.
Awami League leadership say they would raise a 5-point demand during the dialogue with the government that was scheduled for July 3. The demands including complete withdrawal of the state of emergency and permanent release of its leader Sheikh Hasina. She is now on an eight-week interim release for treatment of her damaged ears in America. Last week she installed hearing aid in her left ear in Orlando, Florida. But her right ear was badly damaged due to lack of check-up for long. Orlando ENT specialist Dr Michael advised her to see him after a month.
Hasina, now staying with her daughter Saima Wazed Putul in Toronto, virtually keeps silent about political affairs at home. She might come to London in the second week of this month. It is not clear whether she would return home before August 4, the date of expiry of her interim release. There are strong speculations that Hasina may not return until and unless a final understanding is reached between her party and the caretaker government so she does not have to enter the jail again.
Meanwhile, the government has not taken any decision regarding the release of Khaleda Zia following the suit of Sheikh Hasina. Caretaker Advisors keep on saying that the matter is being looked into on both humanitarian and legal grounds. The question of sending Tarique and Koko abroad for their treatment is still awaiting the government decision. Khaleda would not come to any terms with the caretaker until it allows her two sons to go abroad for treatment. Political analysts say the caretaker government must reach some kind of understanding with BNP leadership to ensure an all participatory credible election to parliament.
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